Pari · prediction pools for Discord
Ask a question. People stake on outcomes and the pool sets the odds. Nobody sees your side until you claim, and your record is a calibration score rather than a pile of winnings.
Installs for you, in any server. Server owners can add it to a whole server instead.
Set VITE_DISCORD_CLIENT_ID at build time and this becomes the Discord authorize link.
demo · no account · nothing real
locks 21:00 UTCresolves by the stream API at 23:00 UTC
Pool now, by outcome.
pool 1,000 ptstakeout 1.5%
Drag to split your stake between the two outcomes. 100% on one side is a 100% claim, and it is scored as one.
Only if the pool was less sure than you were. The pool had 62% on YES, so its Brier was 0.29 and yours was 0.00. Your edge is +0.29 on this market. If YES had lost, the pool would have scored 0.77 and you 2.00, and your edge would be −1.23. A confident call is worth more, and costs more.
Three steps
Anyone with the creator role posts a question with two to ten outcomes and a lock time, or picks a template that fills the form for them.
/market createA card appears in the channel with the question, the outcomes and a countdown.
Everyone else taps a button on the card. Points cost nothing and refill daily. The reply is ephemeral, so only the staker sees it.
/predictThe bars move. The odds are the pool split, and they keep moving until lock.
A steward posts the result with its source. After the dispute window closes, winners claim. Nothing is pushed to you.
/claimYour form score updates, and the market goes on your record whether you won or lost.
Every command is listed on the commands page.
Private by design
2things the chain has to publish. Your position is not one of them.
An order book has to show you the other side of the trade. A pari-mutuel pool does not. Everyone stakes into one pot, the pot sets the odds, and the winners split what is left after takeout. The pot has to be public, because the pot is the odds. Who put what into it does not.
One honest limit, from the same spec: the RPC provider you read through can see which note addresses your client asks for. Self-hosted indexing is the answer for school instances, and decoy reads for everyone else.
Status: specified, not shipped. The private-position program is designed in specs/02-stub.md and the hooks exist in the on-chain program, but they refuse to run until it is deployed. Until then, points-tier stubs are ephemeral Discord replies — only you see them in chat, and the chain records a plain position. The roadmap says exactly where this sits.
Form and edge
+6.4edge vs the pool, over 34 markets
Your form score is a calibration score: how close your allocations land to what actually happens. Your edge is the same score measured against the pool of the very same market. The pool itself scores exactly zero.
Below 20 resolved markets you are shown as provisional and are not ranked. Shrinkage of ten pseudo-markets means three lucky calls cannot top a board.
form score
72
edge +6.4 vs the pool over 34 markets
| Band | Markets | Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 2 | 0 |
| 10-20% | 1 | 0 |
| 20-30% | 3 | 1 |
| 30-40% | 4 | 1 |
| 40-50% | 5 | 2 |
| 50-60% | 6 | 3 |
| 60-70% | 5 | 4 |
| 70-80% | 4 | 3 |
| 80-90% | 3 | 3 |
| 90-100% | 1 | 1 |
Sample figures, drawn to show the shape of the card. They are not anybody’s record.
Mirror
20forms in the index
A mirror pool stakes your amount using one allocation that is computed at lock, not before it. You never hold a per-outcome position of your own, and nobody can see your side early, because there is no side to see until the market is already closed.
Follows the top twenty eligible forms on this server who actually staked on the market, weighted by their edge. Fewer than five of them in a market and it falls back to tracking the pool.
Every enrolled member spreads a hundred chips across the outcomes before lock. The class allocation is the sum. People who do not vote contribute nothing. Built for classrooms.
Past form is not future form.The index pays what the pool pays, minus takeout, unless its forms beat the pool.
Status: specified, not built.
Who it is for
Your chat already argues about what happens next. Put a card in the channel and let the argument settle itself on the record.
“Will this stream hit 10K viewers tonight?”
/market create question:"Will this stream hit 10K viewers tonight?" outcomes:"Yes,No" close:4hThe card edits itself as the pool moves, so one pinned message is the whole thing.
Match nights produce a hundred opinions and no memory of who was right. A market keeps the scoreboard for the scoreboard.
“Who takes game three?”
/market create question:"Who takes game three?" outcomes:"Blue,Red" close:45mMarkets lock before the event so nobody can stake on a result they already know.
The small stuff: who is late, what the weather does, whether the group project ships. Points cost nothing, so the stakes are purely reputational.
“Does anyone actually book the flights this week?”
/market create question:"Does anyone book the flights this week?" outcomes:"Yes,No" close:7dA daily points allowance means nobody is ever locked out for running low.
A sixty-second question to open a lesson, a prediction before the experiment, a board for sports day, a term-long class arc. Points only, and no adult can see what any one kid picked.
“Which liquid dissolves it fastest: vinegar, water or oil?”
/market create question:"Which dissolves it fastest?" outcomes:"Vinegar,Water,Oil" close:20mBuilt for ages 10 to 14. Scout troops and sports teams too — no curriculum required.
Where it runs
1place you have to install anything. The rest are links.
Pari lives inside Discord. Everything else is a way for a market or a result to travel: a page, a board on a television, a card that unfurls when somebody pastes the link. Each surface below carries the same status vocabulary as the roadmap, so nothing here reads as a promise.
Shipped runs today · Building is in progress and visibly incomplete · Planned is specified with nothing running · Exploring is research, not a commitment
The product. Markets, cards with stake buttons, claims, form, leaderboards — all inside the channel.
Slash commands over HTTP, no gateway connection and no privileged intents. One click to add.
Shipped
Grandstand: market pages, the purse, the board, your form. Live on the test network today.
Reads the chain directly rather than a database. Being finished, and the roadmap says so until it is.
Building
The board route at 1920, for a living-room screen or an OBS browser source. Read-only, no interaction.
Minimum 32 px type and 7:1 contrast so it reads from three metres. Verified in the design lab gates.
Shipped
A market or a result as a ticket image at 1200×630, 1080×1080 and 1080×1920, so a pasted link unfurls properly.
One renderer in TypeScript (packages/share) and the same renderer in Rust behind an Open Graph service (crates/billboard), checked against each other fixture by fixture.
Building
Two tiers
The points tier is the whole product with no money in it. The stakes tier adds settlement on Solana and is for age-verified servers and adults. Nothing nudges you from one to the other.
$0
Points tier, for any server.
Points have no cash value. Conversion to money is refused at the program level on points-only and school instances.
Available
$19 / month
Stakes tier, for age-verified servers.
Pro+ at $49 / month adds a custom card skin, the API tier, CSV export and twenty boosts. Schools and organisations are quoted.
Planned
Prices are set in specs/11-operations.md, charged in SOL or USDC, and marked planned because no billing is built yet. Stakes-tier pool fees are separate from the plan: 1% protocol takeout and 0.5% creator takeout at resolution, and a 2% fee if you exit a position before lock.
Roadmap
Statuses below are checked against the repository, not against a wish list. "Shipped" means there is code running; "Building" means it is in progress and visibly incomplete; "Planned" means it is specified and nothing runs yet.
01
Shipped
You can run markets in a server today.
02
Building
A record that follows you between servers.
03
Planned
A board you can open without leaving the channel.
04
Building
Settle in SOL or USDC where it is allowed.
05
Planned
Stake without anyone being able to copy you.
06
Planned
Follow a method instead of a person.
07
Planned
Follow a specific caller, with guardrails.
The rail scrolls sideways — 7 phases in all.
The web app that reads the chain is being finished, not finished. The roadmap will say so until it is.
Last updated ChangelogAsk for it — link not configured yet
Opens a thread in the community server.
Open source
Apache-2.0licence on the protocol
The split matters when something goes wrong. Markets, pools and claims live in the on-chain program, so a market that is open stays open and a market that is final stays claimable whether or not our services are up. The protocol fee goes to a program constant, not a configurable address, so a self-hoster who forks the program is forking the fee switch too — that is the boundary, and it is in code rather than in a policy.
Nothing requires a database to be correct. Odds history rebuilds from the chain’s own events, leaderboards live on-chain, and the indexer is a cache.
Questions
Install
Free tier, nothing to install on your machine, and a Discord command you can undo in two clicks.
Adding it for yourself puts the commands in your pocket: they work in any server that allows them, and in DMs. Adding it to a server lets it post and edit the market cards everyone taps.
Set VITE_DISCORD_CLIENT_ID at build time and this becomes the Discord authorize link.
Telegram — Coming soon. The Telegram mirror is specified and not built.